- 特朗普会在2027年前依据《第二十五修正案》被免职吗？2¢2%
The high trader consensus against removal via the 25th Amendment before 2027 reflects President Trump's continued public schedule, policy execution, and lack of cabinet declarations or documented incapacity that would activate the process under Section 4. With no active disputes between the vice president and cabinet majority, and historical use limited to acute medical crises rather than political disagreements, the mechanism remains dormant. Republican majorities in Congress further reduce the likelihood of sustained challenges. Unforeseen health developments, sudden cabinet shifts, or extreme institutional fractures before the end of 2026 could still introduce limited volatility, though current conditions show no such catalysts.
规则
如果唐纳德·特朗普在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前，依照美国宪法第二十五修正案第 4 条所列程序被正式免去美国总统职务，本市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 如果副总统依照第二十五修正案第 3 条所述程序成为代理总统，这不会影响本市场的判定。只有特朗普通过第二十五修正案第 4 条所列程序被免去职务，才符合结算为“是”的条件。 如果特朗普因任何其他原因在本市场到期日前不再担任美国总统，本市场可能会立即结算为“否”。 本市场的判定依据将是美国政府的官方信息。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。