- 特朗普会在2026年进入太空吗？2¢2%
No official plans, announcements, or preparations exist for President Trump to participate in any crewed spaceflight during 2026, driving the 98.2% implied probability that the outcome will not occur. Recent administration actions emphasize commercial launch growth, Artemis program milestones such as Artemis II and IV timelines, and regulatory streamlining via FAA and NASA initiatives, with focus remaining on policy leadership and contractor support rather than personal astronaut participation. At age 80, structural barriers including medical screening, mission training demands, and national security protocols further reduce feasibility absent extraordinary developments. Late-breaking shifts could still arise from a ceremonial suborbital flight on a commercial vehicle or rapid policy pivot tied to diplomatic or electoral events within the resolution window.
规则
如果唐纳德·特朗普在2026年12月31日 23:59 ET或之前身处任何抵达或越过美国太空界线的航空器或航天器上，则本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 美国太空门槛的定义是平均海平面以上 50 英里。唐纳德·特朗普是否越过国际公认的卡门线，不会影响本市场的结算。 本市场结算的主要依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。