- 伊朗会在 2026年12月31日 前全面断网吗？37¢37%
Iranian authorities have repeatedly imposed severe nationwide internet restrictions in 2026 amid protests and conflict, shaping trader views on the likelihood of a total blackout by upcoming dates. An 88-day near-total outage from late February to late May followed the outbreak of conflict with the United States and Israel, dropping traffic to roughly 1% of normal levels according to NetBlocks and Cloudflare data—the longest such event on record. Partial restoration occurred in late May under President Masoud Pezeshkian, but connectivity stabilized at only about 59-60% of prior volumes with tiered “Internet Pro” access, ongoing filtering, and slowdowns. Fresh nationwide disruptions and mobile restrictions reported by NetBlocks in October 2026 coincided with renewed protests over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation, while officials advance a domestic intranet and countermeasures against satellite services like Starlink. These patterns of using connectivity controls during unrest, combined with persistent filtering and protest risks through year-end, drive the market’s assessment of escalation potential versus gradual or selective reconnection.
规则
如果伊朗在指定日期 23:59 UTC 前发生全面互联网中断，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 就本市场而言，如果根据 Cloudflare Radar 的伊朗数据，总传输字节数至少连续六个每小时数据点降至过去 4 周最高值的 1.0% 或以下，即视为发生“全面互联网中断”；相关数据见过去 4 周的 Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) 图表（https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d）。 该图表会以“__% of Max”的形式列出每个每小时数据点的相关数值。每个数据点的 Max 将采用 Cloudflare 在图表中使用的 Max 数值。 相关连续每小时数据点中，只有第一个必须出现在本市场结算时间之前。如有必要，为确认完整序列，本市场将保持开放，直至观察到两个相关数据点。 本市场的主要结算依据是 Cloudflare Radar 的伊朗数据，具体为 https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d 上过去 4 周的 Iran Traffic trends 图表。如果该结算来源永久无法使用，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。