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The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas (July 2026) shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading the Tocantins Senate race for one of two seats, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Alexandre Guimarães (MDB), Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil), and lower-polling names including Vanderlei Luxemburgo and Eli Borges. July surveys placed Guimarães around 25% and Gaguim near 17%, though one later survey indicated Gaguim closing the gap. With 13 candidates officially registered after August conventions, voter preferences remain split across parties and regions, limiting consolidation behind any single challenger. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with Guimarães holding a modest edge for second place amid ongoing alliance-building and limited late-cycle shifts that could alter the ordering before October voting.