- SPLC 会在 2026 年被判有罪吗？12¢12%
The federal criminal prosecution of the Southern Poverty Law Center in the Middle District of Alabama, indicted in April 2026 on 11 counts including wire fraud, false statements to a bank, and money-laundering conspiracy, remains the dominant factor behind trader expectations. Prosecutors allege the organization funneled millions in donor funds to informants inside extremist groups between 2014 and 2023 without disclosure. The SPLC entered not-guilty pleas, its motion to dismiss on vindictive-prosecution grounds was denied in August, and a superseding indictment followed in June; a trial is scheduled for October 2026. As of mid-October the case has produced no verdict or plea, and complex donor-fraud litigation of this type has historically required extended proceedings before any finding of guilt. Separate civil defamation suits advancing in other courts do not trigger the market’s resolution criteria.
规则
2026年4月21日，美国司法部宣布对 Southern Poverty Law Center（SPLC）提起公诉，其中包括电信诈骗和银行诈骗等指控（参见：https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/g-s1-118275/southern-poverty-law-center-fraud-charges-paid-informants）。 如果截至 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET，SPLC 在本案的任何一项指控中被判有罪，此市场将按“是”结算。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 如果本案因认罪协议但未承认有罪而终结、被驳回，或出现任何法院未作出判决的情况，此市场将按“否”结算。 此市场将根据本案作出的第一项官方判决结算；该判决须认定有罪，或在未认定有罪的情况下最终处理相关指控。任何上诉都不会影响此市场的结算。 主要结算依据为相关法院的官方信息；但也可采用可信报道的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。