- SpaceX星舰第14次试飞会在9月30日前发射吗？100¢100%
- SpaceX星舰第14次飞行测试的超级重型助推器会爆炸吗？100¢100%
- SpaceX 星舰飞行测试 14 的星舰会成功溅落吗？100¢100%
- SpaceX 星舰第14次飞行测试会在10月31日之前发射吗？100¢100%
- SpaceX星舰第14次试飞会在9月28日前发射吗？100¢100%
- SpaceX星舰第14次试飞会在9月29日之前发射吗？100¢100%
- 筷子会接住SpaceX星舰飞行测试14号星舰吗？0¢0%
- SpaceX星舰第14次试飞将在8月31日前发射吗？0¢0%
- SpaceX 星际飞船第14次飞行测试会在9月15日之前发射吗？0¢0%
- 筷子会接住SpaceX星舰试飞14号的超级重型助推器吗？0¢0%
- SpaceX星舰第14次飞行测试会在9月19日之前发射吗？0¢0%
- SpaceX星舰第14次飞行测试会在9月26日前发射吗？0¢0%
This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14.
SpaceX achieved a major milestone with Starship Flight 14 on September 28, 2026, when the vehicle completed its first orbital insertion after liftoff from Starbase, Texas, following FAA licensing the prior day. The upper stage deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites—marking the first revenue-generating payload—then executed a deorbit burn and controlled splashdown in the Pacific despite an ascent engine issue that prompted an abbreviated mission. The Super Heavy booster also landed successfully in the Gulf of Mexico. Traders are pricing high probabilities for near-term launch and splashdown resolutions based on this demonstrated orbital capability, heat shield performance data, and progress toward reusable operations, with attention now shifting to Flight 15 timelines and potential booster catch attempts.
规则
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.