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This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Darline Graham Nordone leads trader consensus in the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff due to her appointment as interim senator, first-place finish in the August 11 primary, and endorsements from President Trump and Sen. Tim Scott. These factors have consolidated support behind the appointed incumbent in a compressed campaign to fill the seat vacated by her late brother Lindsey Graham. Ralph Norman trails as the runoff opponent after placing second on August 11, drawing strength mainly from Upstate counties but facing a broader geographic disadvantage. Other candidates including Russell Fry and Mark Sanford polled below 20 percent in the initial round and endorsed or exited, leaving the outcome between the top two. The August 25 runoff timing and South Carolina's majority-vote requirement for nomination have kept focus on these two contenders amid low overall turnout.