- 萨克森-安哈尔特州会在 2026年12月31日 前宣布提前选举吗？18¢18%
- 萨克森-安哈尔特州会在 2027年3月31日 前宣布提前选举吗？38¢38%
Traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to “No” on a snap election (Neuwahl) being called in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026. The September 6, 2026, regular Landtag election produced a fragmented result, with the AfD taking 39 of 83 seats on 43.8% of the vote but falling three short of an absolute majority. Other parties have upheld a firewall against AfD-led government formation, while the AfD and BSW secured the Landtag presidency on October 6. A Minister-President vote is scheduled for mid-December under the state constitution’s secret-ballot rules, which require an absolute majority in the first two rounds. No parliamentary dissolution has been proposed, and constitutional pathways to an early election—failed Minister-President ballots leading to self-dissolution or a successful no-confidence motion—remain untriggered as of mid-October. The caretaker CDU-SPD-FDP administration continues, and parties are focused on December negotiations rather than immediate dissolution. These factors underpin the market’s expectation that 2026 will conclude without a snap election.
规则
如果 Saxony-Anhalt 在 2027年3月31日 23:59 ET 前宣布提前选举，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，该市场将判定为“否”。 宣布提前选举必须正式解散 Saxony-Anhalt 的 Landtag，或根据该司法辖区的规则，以其他正式方式安排选举 Saxony-Anhalt 的 Landtag 全体成员，且该选举须早于立法任期结束时原定举行的选举。通过 Landtag 决议解散、因未能选出州长而解散，以及 Saxony-Anhalt 州宪法规定的任何其他解散方式，均符合条件。 宣布有意寻求解散、解散议案未获通过，或组阁谈判失败，单凭任何一项都不足以使本市场判定为“是”。 本市场的判定依据为 Saxony-Anhalt 政府和 Saxony-Anhalt 的 Landtag 发布的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。