- Sanae Takaichi 会在 2026 年卸任日本首相吗？3¢3%
Sanae Takaichi's position as Japan's prime minister rests on the Liberal Democratic Party's commanding two-thirds supermajority in the lower house, secured through her February 2026 election victory, which delivered a historic mandate for defense expansion, economic security measures, and tax relief. As she marks her first anniversary in late October 2026, cabinet approval ratings near 50 percent remain above typical danger zones for Japanese leaders despite a minor dip tied to the October resignation of agriculture minister Kazuo Yana over controversial remarks. Traders assign the "no" outcome a 95.2 percent implied probability because no-confidence motions or leadership challenges appear remote before year-end. Late developments such as an escalated cabinet scandal, sudden coalition fractures, or unforeseen health events could still alter the timeline within the narrow remaining window.
规则
如果 Sanae Takaichi 在市场创建至 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 期间的任何时段不再担任日本首相，本市场将结算为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 如果在本市场结束日期之前宣布 Takaichi 辞职或被免职，本市场将立即结算为“是”，无论宣布的辞职或免职何时生效。 如果指定个人被拘留、实际上被免去指定职务，或在本市场的时间范围内以其他方式被永久阻止履行指定职务的职责，则符合结算为“是”的条件。 本市场的结算依据将是 Sanae Takaichi 和日本政府的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。