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Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
United Russia maintains its overwhelming lead in the 2026 State Duma election market due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with strong institutional backing from the Kremlin and President Putin, who recently tied the party explicitly to continuity in the Ukraine conflict during its congress. Scheduled for September 18–20, the vote occurs in a tightly managed system where opposition parties face registration barriers, media restrictions, and legal challenges, as seen in the recent disqualification of Yabloko. Preparations including candidate primaries and multi-day voting procedures reinforce the party's structural advantages. While polls indicate broad leads for United Russia, realistic shifts remain possible only through major unforeseen events such as internal elite fractures or sudden policy reversals that could erode its consolidated position before voting concludes.