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Russia’s State Duma election concluded on September 20-21, 2026, with preliminary results showing United Russia securing approximately 57.8% of the party-list vote and leading in 208 of 225 single-member districts, positioning it for roughly 355 of 450 seats and retention of its constitutional majority. The Kremlin framed the vote as a demonstration of unity behind the Ukraine conflict, while opposition was tightly restricted, including the exclusion of the anti-war Yabloko party. Turnout reached a record near 59% despite reported drone strikes and cyberattacks on the final day. All other qualifying parties have aligned with the government on major issues. Trader consensus at 100% for United Russia reflects these verified preliminary outcomes from the Central Election Commission; final certification or recounts remain possible but face significant structural barriers given the scale of the reported margin.
规则
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.