- 俄罗斯会在 2026年12月31日 前试验核武器吗？4¢4%
Russia continues to conduct strategic nuclear forces exercises and advanced weapons system tests, including recent submerged launches of Kalibr and Oniks cruise missiles from the Yasen-M submarine Novosibirsk and intercontinental ballistic missile drills overseen by President Putin, without any confirmed explosive nuclear detonations. Kremlin statements have repeatedly denied secret nuclear tests and emphasized compliance with the existing testing moratorium, while distinguishing these capability demonstrations from prohibited yield-producing events. Ongoing diplomatic frictions, including stalled arms control talks and the Ukraine conflict, sustain market attention, though trader pricing reflects the high threshold for an actual test and the diplomatic costs involved. Scheduled military activities and any shifts in U.S.-Russia or China-related arms control dynamics remain key near-term factors.
规则
如果俄罗斯在所列日期（ET）当天或之前进行核试验，此市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 核试验是指俄罗斯蓄意引爆装置，且该行为并非出于战斗目的，并产生核连锁反应（核裂变或核聚变）；无论其当量大小，均符合此定义。 意外事故、放射性散布装置（使用常规炸药散布放射性物质的炸弹，例如“脏弹”）或第三方的行动，均不计入此市场的判定。 即使俄罗斯未明确宣称进行试验，只要可信报道有明确共识，认定核爆是由俄罗斯所为，该试验仍可能符合条件。例如，如果可信报道将一次未被宣称、类似于1979年“Vela Incident”的核试验归因于俄罗斯，该试验就会计入。 此市场的判定依据将是可信报道所形成的广泛共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。