- Poilievre 会在 2026年12月31日 前不再担任保守党领袖吗？12¢12%
Pierre Poilievre retained his position as Conservative Party of Canada leader with an 87.4% vote in the January 2026 leadership review following the party's 2025 federal election loss to Mark Carney's Liberals. He subsequently won a by-election in Battle River—Crowfoot and continues to serve as the primary opposition voice on issues including affordability, immigration, trade relations with the United States, and national unity ahead of Alberta's referendum. While internal caucus frustration and unfavorable polling have surfaced in recent months, party sources indicate no organized effort or viable alternative to force a change. Traders assign a 92% probability that he remains in place through December 2026, reflecting the absence of scheduled leadership mechanisms or acute pressure that would alter his status before year-end.
规则
如果 Pierre Poilievre 在市场创建至指定日期（ET）之间的任何一段时间内不再担任加拿大保守党党魁，则本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 如果在该市场结束日期之前宣布 Pierre Poilievre 辞职或被免职，该市场将立即判定为“是”，无论宣布的辞职或免职何时生效。 该市场的判定依据将是 Pierre Poilievre 和加拿大保守党的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。