- 民主党会在2026年俄亥俄州参议院选举中赢得马霍宁县吗？84¢84%
- 共和党会在2026年俄亥俄州参议院选举中赢得马霍宁县吗？16¢16%
Sherrod Brown holds a strong 84.5% implied probability to win Mahoning County in the November 3 Ohio U.S. Senate special election, reflecting his historical performance in the Youngstown-area county's union-heavy, working-class electorate and advantages among women, suburban, and independent voters shown in recent statewide polling. Jon Husted trails at 15%, consistent with his narrower appeal in urban and union precincts despite Republican efforts including a mid-October campaign event in the county and substantial outside spending from aligned groups. The race remains competitive statewide with Brown holding slight leads or ties in late October surveys, but Mahoning's demographic profile and Brown's past margins there underpin trader positioning. Minor candidates and write-ins register at 50%, indicating limited expected impact on the county outcome. Early voting data and final-week turnout in Democratic-leaning areas could further influence results.
规则
本市场将根据在定于 2026年11月3日 举行的俄亥俄州联邦参议员特别选举中，从 Mahoning County 获得最多有效选票的政党提名候选人或独立候选人来结算。 候选人主要按照其在指定选举中获得的有效票数排名。如果两名或更多候选人的有效票数相同，则按照候选人姓氏的字母顺序决定排名。应用此排名后，名次最高的候选人将是本市场的结果。 民主党和共和党的提名候选人列在合约中，以方便交易者查阅。如果任何一位列名候选人在选举日前被替换，不再代表其所属政党参选，合约中的姓名将会更新，市场将根据该政党的替代候选人结果结算。 如果截至 2027年3月31日，指定县的选举结果仍未得到明确确认，本市场将结算为“其他”。 本市场将根据可信新闻报道形成的共识进行判定。如有歧义，本市场将仅依据俄亥俄州政府公布的官方结果结算，包括州务卿办公室和 Mahoning County 政府公布的结果。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。