- Nicolás Maduro 会在 2026年12月31日 前获释吗？5¢5%
Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in New York following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. special forces during a nighttime raid in Caracas. He and his wife Cilia Flores face multiple charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, weapons offenses, and a later superseding indictment alleging conspiracy to commit torture of political rivals and Americans. Both pleaded not guilty in recent proceedings, with the next court date set for March 2027 and a potential trial in June 2027. Trader sentiment on release timelines reflects the standard pace of complex federal cases involving extradited foreign nationals, where pretrial detention is common pending resolution. No major diplomatic negotiations or health-related motions for Maduro’s release have advanced publicly, though Flores’s attorneys have cited her heart condition in a separate bid for home confinement. Venezuela’s interim government under Delcy Rodríguez has prioritized U.S. engagement on oil matters over pressing for his return, limiting near-term political catalysts. Upcoming procedural milestones, such as further hearings or any plea discussions, represent the primary variables that could shift probabilities before the 2027 trial window.
规则
如果 Nicolás Maduro 在所列日期的 23:59 ET 前获释，则此市场的结算结果为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 如果 Nicolás Maduro 获释但仍被软禁，此市场仍将结算为“是”。 如果 Nicolás Maduro 获准假释、交保，或以任何其他会使其脱离国家羁押的条件获释，此市场将结算为“是”。 将 Nicolás Maduro 移送至另一个羁押地点（例如矫正系统内的另一所监狱、法院或医院），不足以使此市场结算为“是”。 为在法院或国会作证等目的而暂时离开监狱，只要仍由矫正机关羁押，就不算获释。 本市场的主要判定依据将是政府部门或矫正部门发布的官方信息；不过，也可以依据可信新闻报道形成的共识进行判定。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。