- 2026年新西兰大选的投票率会低于76%吗？<1¢<1%
- 2026年新西兰大选的选民投票率会在76%到78%之间吗？12¢12%
- 2026年新西兰大选的选民投票率会在78%到80%之间吗？39¢39%
- 2026年新西兰大选的选民投票率会在80%到82%之间吗？50¢50%
- 2026年新西兰大选的选民投票率会在82%到84%之间吗？5¢5%
- 2026年新西兰大选的投票率会达到84%或更高吗？<1¢<1%
The tight contest between National and Labour, with neither bloc likely to secure a majority and the centrist Opportunity Party positioned as a potential kingmaker, has kept the New Zealand election highly competitive heading into November 7. This dynamic, combined with record early voting—over 1.25 million ballots cast by early November, roughly 30% ahead of the comparable 2023 period—has supported trader expectations for turnout in the 78-82% range of enrolled voters. However, the new enrolment deadline of October 25, which reduced the overall rate to 93.6% (about 40,000 fewer than in 2023, with youth enrolment notably lower at 74.2%), introduces downward pressure by limiting last-minute registrations. Historical turnout of 78.2% in 2023, negative campaigning, and voter fatigue further contribute to the narrow spread between the leading 78-80% and 80-82% brackets, as additional mobilization from the close race could offset enrolment shortfalls while election-day participation remains uncertain.
规则
新西兰计划于 2026年11月7日 举行大选。 本市场将根据2026年新西兰大选的官方投票率结果结算。投票率定义为投出的总票数除以登记选民总数（投票总数相对于选民名册上的选民人数，包含普通选区和毛利选区的合计）。 如果公布的数值恰好落在两个区间之间，本市场将按较高的区间结算。 如果截至 2027年10月31日 23:59 ET 尚未能确定本次选举结果，本市场将按最低的区间结算。 本市场的主要结算依据为 New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/) 发布的官方选举结果；但如果没有官方结果，也可以采用可信报道的一致意见。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。