The US trade embargo, reinforced by tightened 2026 sanctions under the Trump administration that limit dealings with Cuban state entities while permitting only private-sector transactions, remains the dominant barrier preventing McDonald’s from announcing operations on the island. Cuban Decree 167, enacted in August after June announcements by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, authorizes foreign food-service franchises in principle, yet no agreements, licensing deals, or corporate commitments have materialized amid unresolved issues over profit repatriation, supply chains, and sanctions compliance. Trader consensus at 96% against an announcement by year-end reflects these structural constraints and the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs. A late-2026 policy shift easing embargo restrictions or an unexpected bilateral accord could still alter the outcome before December 31.
如果 McDonald’s Corporation,或获授权在古巴开设或经营 McDonald’s 餐厅的 McDonald’s 特许经营商或代表宣布将在古巴开设或已经开设任何 McDonald’s 餐厅,或此类开业以其他方式得到确认,则本市场将判定为“是”,截止时间为 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET。否则,本市场将以“否”结算。 在此市场期限内发布的官方公告,均符合以“是”结算的条件,无论之后是否在该期限内实际开设 McDonald’s 餐厅。 在古巴开设任何 McDonald’s 餐厅均符合条件,不论其具体地点如何。 未明确承诺开设 McDonald’s 餐厅的公告,例如一般性的业务扩张声明、探索性评论或附带条件的公告,均不予计入。未经许可的餐厅、仿冒餐厅,或未经 McDonald’s Corporation 授权而使用 McDonald’s 品牌的其他商家,均不符合条件。 结算依据将为 McDonald’s Corporation 或其授权代表的官方声明;不过,也将采用可信新闻报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议,以原文为准。