- Max Miller 会在 2026年12月31日 前不再担任美国众议员吗？6¢6%
Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) remains in office through December 31, 2026, reflecting his continued candidacy, Republican institutional support, and the absence of any mechanism or announcement forcing an earlier exit. Miller, representing Ohio’s 7th District, rebuffed summer 2026 calls from figures including Sen. Bernie Moreno (his former father-in-law) and Sen. Jon Husted to withdraw amid domestic-abuse allegations from his ex-wife, which he has denied. The withdrawal window closed in August without his cooperation, leaving him as the Republican nominee on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Recent developments show sustained, if measured, GOP backing: Trump has endorsed him publicly, the NRCC has aired ads, and Miller has loaned his campaign substantial funds while releasing new campaign material addressing the allegations. No criminal charges have been filed against Miller, and the race—now rated a toss-up due to the scandal—remains on track for voters to decide. With the election occurring before year-end and no resignation signals or legal barriers to completing his current term (ending January 2027), the consensus centers on continuity through December absent unforeseen developments.
规则
如果 Max Miller 辞去美国众议院议员职务一事在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前正式宣布，本市场将判定为“是”。否则将判定为“否”。 当 Max Miller、美国众议院或其授权代表公开且明确地宣布 Max Miller 已不再或将不再担任俄亥俄州第七国会选区的美国众议员时，即视为已宣布离职。无论指定人士何时正式离职，此类公告均符合条件。指定人士辞职、被免职或以其他方式离职的公告均符合条件。 以下情形不符合公开且明确宣布的要求：声明称指定人士正在考虑离职或愿意离职；有条件的声明称指定人士仅在满足特定条件时才会离职；宣布提出了需要接受、仍待处理或已被拒绝的辞职提议；媒体报道称指定人士计划离职；以讽刺或开玩笑的方式作出的声明；以及由指定人士、负责管理指定职位的相关机构或其各自授权代表以外的人士作出的声明。 只有明确表示离职将在公告日期起18个月内生效的公告才符合条件（例如，“我将在2年后离职”和“我不会永远在任”均不符合条件）。 有关临时请假、定期停职、无限期停职、行政休假或指定人士在指定职位上的职责发生其他临时变化的公告均不符合条件。 如果指定人士按预先确定的任期担任指定职位，且任期有预定结束日期，则只有宣布其将在预定任期结束前离职的公告才符合条件。 如果指定人士在没有符合要求的公告的情况下，于指定日期前正式不再担任指定职位，且主要权威新闻机构在指定日期前确认其离职，本市场将判定为“是”。 本市场的判定依据为 Max Miller 和美国政府的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信新闻报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。