- Maduro是否所有罪名都成立？34¢34%
Traders assign "No" a 64.5% implied probability in the Maduro guilty of all counts market because the case remains in its early pre-trial phase with significant procedural and substantive hurdles ahead. Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were captured in a U.S. military operation in January 2026 and face charges in Manhattan federal court that now include narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, weapons offenses, and a recently added conspiracy-to-commit-torture count covering alleged repression of political opponents and U.S. citizens. Both have pleaded not guilty, and their defense has moved to dismiss the indictment on sovereign-immunity grounds, arguing the charges stem from official acts; prosecutors counter that the U.S. does not recognize Maduro as head of state and that the current Venezuelan government has not asserted immunity. The trial is set for June 2027, leaving ample time for further motions, possible plea negotiations, evidentiary disputes, or partial acquittals. The expanded indictment increases complexity without resolving core legal challenges, supporting the market's view that conviction on every count is far from assured.
规则
如果 Nicolás Maduro 被判定犯有起诉书 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 中的所有罪名，此市场将判定为“是”。205 (AKH)) 截至 2027年12月31日、23:59 ET。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 此市场将根据市场创建时法院对 Maduro 起诉案作出的初审判决进行结算（https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl）。 如果截至结算时间，Nicolás Maduro 未被判定犯有上述起诉书中的所有罪名，此市场将判定为“否”。这包括未进行审判，或未就所有罪名作出有罪判决或经法院接受的认罪答辩等任何结果，例如任何一项罪名被判无罪、部分定罪、审判无效、陪审团未能达成裁决，或撤销任何一项罪名。 此市场将根据本案作出的初审判决进行结算。任何上诉都不会影响此市场的结算。 结算的主要依据将是美国法院系统的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。