- Luke Campbell 会在 12月31日 前被捕吗？3¢3%
Recent allegations against Reform UK mayor Luke Campbell have prompted a police investigation but have not led to an arrest. The Hull and East Yorkshire mayor, a former Olympic boxer, faces claims he showed a female colleague naked and sexualised images of himself in May 2026, with the accuser alleging the incident contributed to her departure from the role. Campbell was interviewed under caution by Humberside Police earlier in October, yet no charges or arrests have occurred as of mid-to-late October. Campbell and Reform UK have firmly denied the claims, describing them as originating from a disgruntled employee in a workplace dispute. The combined authority has confirmed both the police probe and its own internal standards process, which must proceed independently. Given the early investigative stage, the absence of immediate enforcement action, and the contested nature of the allegations, traders assign a high implied probability to no arrest occurring by year-end.
规则
如果 Luke Campbell 在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前被执法部门逮捕或拘留，该市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 在等待法官决定是否签发拘留令期间，暂时关押在拘留设施也符合条件，前提是其在此期间由执法部门以官方身份羁押。 符合条件的逮捕/拘留包括： * 被执法部门（包括联邦、州、地方、军事或国际执法部门）实际拘押。 * 因逮捕令而自愿向执法部门投案。 * 被拘留后正式登记或办理相关手续。 * 被州政府机关戴上手铐并带到警察局。 * 在律师陪同下到警察局或法院投案。 * 被软禁或接受电子监控。 以下情况不属于逮捕/拘留： * 逮捕令已签发但未执行。 * 未被逮捕但遭到询问或问话。 * 未被逮捕但被列入起诉书。 该市场判定的主要依据将是实施逮捕的政府和执法部门的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。