- Le Pen 会在法国总统大选前佩戴电子脚镣吗？10¢10%
Marine Le Pen's July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction but shortened her public-office ban to 15 months already served, preserving eligibility for the 2027 presidential race while imposing one year of home detention with electronic monitoring. She promptly appealed to the Court of Cassation, whose filing automatically suspends enforcement of the ankle-monitor sentence pending final review. The supreme court has scheduled proceedings with an expected decision before the April 2027 first round, and Le Pen has publicly committed to campaigning without restrictions during this period. No enforcement actions or new judicial rulings have altered this timeline as of mid-October 2026. Trader consensus on the "no" outcome at 90.5% reflects the suspension mechanism, procedural delays typical in French cassation appeals, and the absence of immediate sentence-execution steps that would force monitoring before the election.
规则
如果 Marine Le Pen 在市场创建至 2027年4月17日 期间的任何时间（巴黎时间 23:59）佩戴法院命令或依法强制佩戴的电子监控设备，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 本市场将仅根据 Marine Le Pen 是否在指定时间段内实际佩戴法院命令或依法强制佩戴的电子监控设备来判定，无论是否存在待审或未来的上诉、尚未执行的刑罚、其参选资格或候选人身份的变更，或其他法律程序或手续。 健身追踪设备、智能手表或其他类似的消费级可穿戴技术均不符合条件。短暂试戴、测试、演示电子监控设备或以其他非强制方式使用该设备均不符合条件；除非 Le Pen 是作为法院或其他有权法律机构实施的有效电子监控措施的一部分而佩戴该设备。 本市场结算的主要依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。