- 2026年会否颁布禁止体育预测市场的法律？7¢7%
Trader consensus against a 2026 federal law banning sports prediction markets stems from active CFTC oversight and proposed rules that classify most event contracts as swaps while excluding only casino-style products. State-level efforts, such as Minnesota’s blocked felony ban and cease-and-desist actions in roughly 20 states, remain fragmented and subject to federal preemption challenges amid circuit splits now before the Supreme Court. A March bipartisan Senate bill targeting sports contracts has seen no further movement, while industry lobbying and CFTC guidance favor regulated operation over prohibition. Ongoing litigation and regulatory proposals through late 2026 continue to support platform access in most jurisdictions rather than nationwide legislative shutdown.
规则
如果任何一项法案在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 之前签署成为法律，且其效果是禁止受 CFTC 监管的预测市场提供体育博彩合约，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 任何禁止受联邦监管的预测市场提供体育博彩合约，或以其他方式将此类活动置于州级赌博监管而非联邦监管之下的法案，均符合判定为“是”的条件。 符合条件的立法可以包括两院共同决议，并且必须经众议院和参议院通过，且必须由总统签署；或在国会仍在会期时未经签署而成为法律；或通过推翻否决而成为法律。到期失效的总统搁置否决将判定为“否”。 本市场判定的主要依据将是美国联邦政府和美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的官方信息；此外，也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。