- Guy Cormier会赢得2026年Laurier—Sainte-Marie补选吗？94¢94%
- Zumretay Arkin会赢得2026年Laurier—Sainte-Marie补选吗？3¢3%
- Nimâ Machouf会赢得2026年Laurier—Sainte-Marie补选吗？3¢3%
- Mathieu Fournier会赢得2026年Laurier—Sainte-Marie补选吗？3¢3%
Guy Cormier’s selection as the Liberal candidate in the December 7, 2026 by-election for the Laurier—Sainte-Marie riding has driven the market’s strong consensus. The Montreal seat has been held by Liberals since 2015, with the party securing over 51 percent in the 2025 general election despite the resignation of former MP Steven Guilbeault. Cormier, former Desjardins Group CEO, brings significant business and community profile in Quebec and was announced in late October 2026. Forecasts project the Liberals well ahead of the NDP’s Nimâ Machouf, the Bloc Québécois’s Zumretay Arkin, and other contenders, consistent with historical patterns in the riding. A late shift in Quebec voter sentiment or unusually low turnout could narrow margins, though current evidence points to limited scope for such changes before voting.
规则
加拿大联邦选区 Laurier—Sainte-Marie 的补选目前定于 2026年12月7日 举行。 此市场将根据赢得 2026 年 Laurier—Sainte-Marie 补选的候选人进行结算。 如果截至 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 仍无法确切得知选举结果，则该市场将结算为“其他”。 此市场的结算来源将是可信报道的共识。如有歧义，该市场将仅依据 Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/) 发布的官方选举结果进行结算。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。