- 到 2026年12月31日 前，Lai Ching-te 会不再担任台湾总统吗？5¢5%
Lai Ching-te remains firmly in office as Taiwan’s president through his term ending in 2028, with no viable path to removal by year-end 2026 driving the 93.5% trader consensus against early departure. His October 2026 National Day address emphasized domestic economic relief, defense investments to deter conflict, and openness to U.S.-China dialogue while rejecting subordination, reflecting continued active governance without signs of resignation, health concerns, or successful legislative action. Opposition parties hold insufficient seats for impeachment thresholds, and ongoing constitutional disputes over budgets and legislation have produced deadlock rather than ouster proceedings. Recent focus on tariffs, AI policy, and international ties further signals stability, consistent with historical patterns where presidents complete terms absent extraordinary events.
规则
如果 Lai Ching-te 在市场创建至指定日期（ET）之间的任何一段时间不再担任台湾总统，此市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 如果在此市场结束日期之前宣布 Lai Ching-te 辞职或被免职，此市场将立即判定为“是”，无论宣布的辞职或免职何时生效。 如果指定个人被拘留、实际上被免去指定职务，或在本市场的时间范围内以其他方式被永久阻止履行指定职务的职责，则符合结算为“是”的条件。 此市场的判定依据将是 Lai Ching-te 和台湾政府的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。