- Chen Yu-jen会赢得下一届金门县县长选举吗？97¢97%
- Liang Wen-tao会赢得下一届金门县县长选举吗？2¢2%
- Li Wen-liang会赢得下一届金门县县长选举吗？2¢2%
- Yang Cheng-wu会赢得下一届金门县县长选举吗？<1¢<1%
Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang legislator and party’s sole nominee for Kinmen County magistrate, holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability in the market ahead of the November 28 election. Recent polling reinforces this position, with a September KMT-commissioned survey showing her at 45.4% support—more than 34 points ahead of the nearest rival, former deputy magistrate Li Wen-liang—while a mid-October street poll indicated overwhelming preference. Party consolidation strengthened her standing when former magistrate Yang Cheng-wu withdrew in early September to avoid splitting the vote. The fragmented field of independent candidates has produced no coordinated challenge, leaving her path to victory through established KMT networks and local organizational strength. A reversal would require an unforeseen late development, such as a significant scandal or abrupt shift among undecided voters, to alter the current consensus.
规则
台湾地方选举定于2026年11月28日举行。 本市场将根据此次选举结果而成为金门县下一任县长的候选人来结算。 选举前任命的临时、过渡或代理县长将不予考虑。 如果截至 2027年6月30日 23:59 ET，此次选举结果仍未公布，或尚未选出任何候选人，本市场将以“其他”结算。 本市场将根据可信媒体报道所形成的共识所表明的选举结果进行结算。如有歧义，本市场将仅依据台湾政府公布的官方结果进行结算，具体以中央选举委员会（https://db.cec.gov.tw/）公布的结果为准。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。