- Kim Jong Un会在2026年访问美国吗？1¢1%
Trader consensus on a low probability for Kim Jong Un visiting the United States in 2026 stems from the absence of any announced plans, diplomatic signals, or preparatory steps for such a trip. Recent North Korean actions, including missile tests and a defense museum display of ICBMs capable of reaching the US mainland, coincide with President Trump's comments signaling possible talks during his November Asia itinerary for the APEC summit in China. Past summits occurred in neutral or regional locations, and longstanding security, logistical, and political barriers make a US visit improbable without prior major concessions on denuclearization. A late-year breakthrough enabling a Washington meeting remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence in current bilateral dynamics.
规则
如果朝鲜最高领导人 Kim Jong Un 在市场创建后至 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 期间访问美国，该市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 就本市场而言，“访问”是指 Kim Jong Un 亲自进入美国的陆地或海上领土。在本市场的时间范围内，Kim Jong Un 是否进入美国领空，均不会影响市场判定为正面结果。就本市场而言，美国领土不包括原本不在美国主权领土范围内的军事基地或外交机构驻地。 本市场的主要判定来源为美国或朝鲜的官方信息；不过，也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。