- Hsieh Kuo-liang会赢得下一届基隆市长选举吗？72¢
- Tung Tzu-wei会赢得下一届基隆市长选举吗？27¢
Recent polling from early October shows KMT incumbent Hsieh Kuo-liang holding a 4.6-point lead in support over DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei in Keelung, with stronger projected win likelihood and estimated vote share among decided voters. Hsieh benefits from incumbency in a traditionally KMT-leaning city and has maintained a modest edge across multiple surveys despite earlier indications of a tighter contest. Tung, the city council speaker, draws from strong local organization and committed supporter turnout intentions. The November 28 election remains weeks away, with a minor third candidate drawing negligible backing. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these polling trends and structural advantages for the incumbent.
规则
台湾地方选举定于2026年11月28日举行。 本市场将根据此次选举后成为基隆市下一任市长的候选人进行结算。 选举前任命的临时、过渡或代理市长将不予考虑。 如果截至 2027年6月30日 23:59 ET，此次选举结果仍未公布，或尚未选出任何候选人，本市场将以“其他”结算。 本市场将根据可信媒体报道所形成的共识所表明的选举结果进行结算。如有歧义，本市场将仅依据台湾政府公布的官方结果进行结算，具体以中央选举委员会（https://db.cec.gov.tw/）公布的结果为准。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。