- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero会被判处监禁吗？3¢3%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero remains in the investigative phase of the Plus Ultra case at Spain’s Audiencia Nacional, where he faces allegations of influence peddling, money laundering, and potential malversación tied to jewelry seized from his offices. The judge has sought extensions for further inquiries, including testimony from his daughters scheduled for late November 2026, reflecting the case’s complexity and volume of pending diligencias. No trial date exists, and Spanish procedural rules require formal charging, hearings, possible appeals, and sentencing before any prison term could result. Trader consensus at 96.7% on “No” aligns with the extended timeline typical for high-profile political cases, historical outcomes for similar investigations, and structural protections afforded former officeholders. Developments that could still shift probabilities include new evidence triggering accelerated proceedings, international cooperation outcomes, or rulings on pending defense challenges.
规则
如果 José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero 因任何指控被判处任何期限的监禁，且判刑时间不晚于 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET，本市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 本市场将持续开放至 2026年12月31日，或直到指定人士被判处监禁为止，无论最初的判决是否包含监禁。任何判决均符合条件，不受后续上诉或刑期变更影响。 民事诉讼、监管行动、行政投诉、未提出指控的调查、内部雇佣措施，或未提出刑事指控的公开指责，均不符合条件，即使这些事件受到广泛报道，或在口语中被称为“指控”也一样。 如果在任何时候，针对指定人士的调查或由此产生的任何刑事案件正式结束，且已不可能判处监禁，包括因未提出指控、指控被撤销、被判无罪，或法院未作出且将不会作出任何判决的其他情况，本市场将结算为“否”。 本市场的主要结算依据将是相关政府和执法机构的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。