- Jon Ossoff 或 Raphael Warnock 会在 2026 年离开参议院吗？3¢3%
Trader consensus on this market reflects Ossoff’s strong position as the Democratic incumbent in Georgia’s November 3, 2026, Senate contest against Republican Representative Mike Collins. Recent polling averages show Ossoff ahead by roughly 6–9 points, supported by dominant fundraising—$33 million raised in the third quarter alone with $26 million cash on hand—and favorable race ratings from forecasters such as Cook (Likely Democratic) and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Ossoff has repeatedly pledged to serve a full six-year term if reelected and ruled out a 2028 presidential bid. Warnock, whose seat is not contested until 2028, shows no indications of resignation or departure. While late developments such as health events, scandals, or sharp polling reversals could theoretically shift outcomes, current primary-source campaign data and electoral indicators underpin the market’s high probability that both senators remain in office through 2026.
规则
如果 Jon Ossoff 或 Raphael Warnock 在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前正式不再担任美国参议员，该市场将判定为 Yes。否则，该市场将判定为“否。” Jon Ossoff 或 Raphael Warnock 必须依照适用于该职位的法律、规则或程序，正式不再担任指定职位。宣布将在未来离职不符合条件。离职方式不影响结算；辞职、免职、开除或其他方式均符合条件。 临时休假、有期限的停职、无限期停职、行政休假，或指定人员在指定职位上的职责发生其他临时变动，均不符合条件。 该市场的判定依据将为 Jon Ossoff、Raphael Warnock、Jon Ossoff 或 Raphael Warnock 的办公室以及美国参议院发布的声明。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。