- 杰罗姆·鲍威尔会在2027年前入狱吗？1¢1%
The overwhelming 97.8% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the complete absence of any criminal indictments, regulatory enforcement actions, or credible investigations targeting the Federal Reserve Chair. As a Senate-confirmed public official overseeing monetary policy, Powell faces no documented legal exposure that would meet the high evidentiary bar for incarceration, consistent with historical precedent for Fed leadership. Traders price this outcome as near-certain given the institutional safeguards and lack of recent developments suggesting otherwise. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as politically motivated charges in a highly polarized environment or unforeseen personal misconduct emerging in the final months of his term, though neither has materialized in official filings or credible reporting.
规则
如果 Jerome Powell 在市场创建至 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 期间，曾在美国联邦、州或地方的任何监狱或看守所服刑，则该市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 该市场的主要结算依据将是美国政府的官方信息，但也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。