- 日本国会会在2026年解散吗？9¢9%
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition secured a fresh mandate in the February 2026 Lower House election following the January dissolution, leaving the current four-year term with more than three years remaining as of mid-October. With a working majority intact and no no-confidence motion pending, the ruling bloc faces little institutional pressure to seek another early vote before year-end. Recent cabinet turbulence, including the agriculture minister’s resignation, has trimmed approval ratings to the low-to-mid 50s but not triggered the kind of acute crisis that historically prompts dissolution. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against a 2026 dissolution, viewing it as inconsistent with standard Japanese parliamentary practice unless unforeseen events such as coalition fracture or a sharp economic downturn materialize in the final weeks of the year.
规则
如果日本现任众议院在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前解散，该市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 该市场判定的主要依据是日本政府的官方信息，但也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。