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Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, faces a high risk of falling short of the Knesset’s 3.25% electoral threshold in the October 27 election, aligning with the market’s 59% probability for fewer than four seats. Recent polls show its support averaging near 2.9–4.1 seats, with several October surveys placing it at 1.5–2.7% and others at exactly four mandates. A October 13 withdrawal by candidate Davidi Ben-Zion, citing vote-splitting concerns and backed by statements from Benjamin Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich, has underscored fragmentation risks within the right-wing camp. Traders price the 4–6 seat band at 33% due to occasional polling crossings, while outcomes above six seats remain negligible given consistent competition from established parties like Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. The nine-day timeline to voting limits scope for major shifts.
规则
预计以色列将于2026年10月27日举行立法选举。 该市场将根据 Amcha Yisrael 在此次选举中于以色列议会赢得的席位数进行结算。 如果 Amcha Yisrael 与一个或多个政党组成联合候选人名单参加此次选举，则该联合候选人名单赢得的所有席位都将计入。如果 Amcha Yisrael 在选举前与另一个政党合并，则合并后政党赢得的所有席位，或其通过参选的任何联合候选人名单赢得的所有席位，都将计入。 如果截至 2027年10月31日 23:59 ET 仍无法确定这次选举的结果，此市场将按最低区间结算。 该市场的结算将完全依据 Amcha Yisrael 在此次选举中赢得的席位数。 本市场将根据选举结果进行结算，具体以可信新闻报道形成的共识为准。如果存在歧义，本市场将仅依据以色列中央选举委员会（Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit）公布的官方结果进行结算（https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page）。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。