- 伊朗会在2027年前拥有核武器吗？3¢3%
Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA reporting no visible reconstruction efforts at those sites through late October 2026. Inspectors have lacked access since June 2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverified amid ongoing diplomatic efforts and an IAEA referral to the UN Security Council. These developments, combined with Iran's suspension of safeguards cooperation and internal debates over NPT obligations, underpin trader consensus that weaponization timelines remain extended well beyond 2026. Remaining risks include undetected activity at undeclared locations or accelerated post-conflict decisions to enrich existing stocks further.
规则
如果国际核机构、伊朗政府本身或可信的全球新闻来源发布可信报道，正式确认伊朗在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前拥有核武器，则此市场将结算为“是”。 否则，本市场将以“否”结算。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。