- 印度会在2026年12月31日之前袭击巴基斯坦吗？11¢
Tensions between India and Pakistan remain elevated following the May 2025 Operation Sindoor airstrikes, which India launched in response to a Pahalgam terror attack attributed to Pakistan-based groups, and the subsequent U.S.-brokered ceasefire that ended four days of exchanges. Trader consensus currently prices a low probability of another Indian drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of a major new trigger such as a large-scale attack from Pakistan. Ongoing low-level ceasefire violations along the Line of Control, isolated border incidents involving civilians, extended Pakistani airspace restrictions on Indian flights, and pointed exchanges at the United Nations continue to sustain friction without crossing into broader military action. India has reiterated that any future terror incident originating from Pakistani soil would be treated as an act of war, while diplomatic channels and the current de-escalation framework limit immediate escalation risks through the end of the resolution window.
规则
如果印度在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前对巴基斯坦领土发动无人机、导弹或空袭，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 就本市场而言，符合条件的“打击”定义为：印度军方发射的航空炸弹、无人机或导弹（包括巡航导弹或弹道导弹）击中巴基斯坦领土（例如，如果印度导弹或无人机击中巴基斯坦境内的目标，本市场将判定为“是”）。 在到达巴基斯坦领土之前被拦截的导弹或无人机，以及地对空导弹袭击，均不足以判定为“是”，无论残骸是否落在巴基斯坦境内或造成损害。 炮击、轻武器射击、FPV 或 ATGM 袭击、地面入侵、海军炮击、网络攻击，或印度地面部队实施的任何行动，均不符合本市场对打击的定义。 判定依据将是可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。