- Imran Khan 会在 2026年12月31日 前获释吗？8¢8%
Pakistan's jailed former prime minister Imran Khan continues to face multiple convictions and over 180 pending cases, with appeals in key matters such as the Al-Qadir Trust case adjourned amid disputes over legal access. Recent PTI protests, including the October 2026 Long March demanding his release and medical care, yielded only limited concessions like possible hospital visits after government talks stalled over counterterrorism demands and provincial control. The federal imposition of emergency rule in PTI stronghold Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in mid-October further weakened the party's leverage, while court orders for private medical examinations face government challenges. Analysts note no near-term path to full release before the year-end deadline, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability for "No."
规则
如果巴基斯坦前总理 Imran Khan 在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前获释出狱，此市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将判定为“否”。 就本市场而言，只有在 Imran Khan 连续至少 24 小时未被实际关押于任何巴基斯坦拘留设施，才会被视为已出狱；这些设施包括任何监狱、候审拘留设施或其他正式羁押场所。因接受医疗而临时获释、以须返回羁押为条件的保释，或在一宗案件中获释但仍因另一宗案件遭羁押，均不符合条件。在获释后被软禁、受到旅行限制或须遵守其他非羁押条件，不会妨碍此市场判定为“是”。 本市场的判定来源将为巴基斯坦政府或 Imran Khan 的官方信息；但也可采用可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。