- Yu Shu-chen会赢得下一届花莲县县长选举吗？84¢84%
- Chang Chun会赢得下一届花莲县县长选举吗？11¢11%
- Wei Chia-hsien会赢得下一届花莲县县长选举吗？6¢6%
- Yeh Yao-hui会赢得下一届花莲县县长选举吗？3¢3%
- Lo Pei-chin会赢得下一届花莲县县长选举吗？<1¢<1%
Yu Shu-chen, the Kuomintang nominee and Ji’an Township head, leads the November 28, 2026 Hualien County Magistrate race with strong trader consensus due to official party nomination, established local networks, and alignment with the county’s longstanding pan-blue voter base. Recent October polling shows her at roughly 30% support ahead of independents Chang Chun and Wei Chia-hsien, with large undecided shares; head-to-head scenarios widen her margin further. Ballot numbers drawn October 27 placed the main contenders sequentially, while the absence of a DPP candidate leaves roughly one-quarter of the electorate potentially pivotal amid pan-blue fragmentation. These dynamics have kept alternative outcomes at low implied probabilities ahead of election day.
规则
台湾地方选举定于2026年11月28日举行。 此市场将根据在此次选举中当选为下一任花莲县县长的候选人来结算。 选举前任命的临时、过渡或代理县长将不予考虑。 如果截至 2027年6月30日 23:59 ET，此次选举结果仍未公布，或尚未选出任何候选人，本市场将以“其他”结算。 本市场将根据可信媒体报道所形成的共识所表明的选举结果进行结算。如有歧义，本市场将仅依据台湾政府公布的官方结果进行结算，具体以中央选举委员会（https://db.cec.gov.tw/）公布的结果为准。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。