- Ann Kao 会赢得下一届新竹市长选举吗？89¢89%
- Chuang Ching-cheng 会赢得下一届新竹市长选举吗？12¢12%
- Ho Chih-yung 会赢得下一届新竹市长选举吗？<1¢<1%
Ann Kao, the incumbent Hsinchu City mayor running as an independent with KMT and TPP backing, holds an 88% implied probability in the November 28, 2026, election according to trader consensus, well ahead of DPP challenger Chuang Ching-cheng at 12% and Ho Chih-yung at under 1%. This positioning stems primarily from her court acquittal on prior corruption charges, reinstatement after suspension, and survival of a recall effort, which together reinforced her incumbency edge in the semiconductor hub. A split opposition field has limited any single challenger's ability to consolidate support. In the past week, Kao conducted visible grassroots campaigning, including a Central Market walk and inauguration of a local support association, sustaining momentum into the final month before voting.
规则
台湾地方选举定于2026年11月28日举行。 本市场将根据此次选举结果当选新竹市下一任市长的候选人进行结算。 选举前任命的临时、过渡或代理市长将不予考虑。 如果截至 2027年6月30日 23:59 ET，此次选举结果仍未公布，或尚未选出任何候选人，本市场将以“其他”结算。 本市场将根据可信媒体报道所形成的共识所表明的选举结果进行结算。如有歧义，本市场将仅依据台湾政府公布的官方结果进行结算，具体以中央选举委员会（https://db.cec.gov.tw/）公布的结果为准。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。