- 特朗普会驱逐不到20万人吗？2¢2%
- 特朗普会驱逐人数：200–30万人吗？4¢4%
- 特朗普会驱逐多少人：300–400k？8¢8%
- 特朗普会驱逐人数：400–50万人吗？43¢43%
- 特朗普会驱逐人数：500-600k 吗？4¢4%
- 特朗普会驱逐人数：600–70万吗？2¢2%
- 特朗普会驱逐多少人：700–80万？1¢1%
- 特朗普会驱逐这个数量的人吗：800-900k？1¢1%
- 特朗普会驱逐来自900k-1m的人吗？3¢3%
- 特朗普会驱逐超过100万人吗？3¢3%
Recent Migration Policy Institute analysis shows U.S. authorities completed roughly 980,000 deportations and returns from January 2025 through July 2026, placing the annualized pace for fiscal year 2026 at approximately 660,000—above prior years yet below the administration’s one-million target. Traders appear to weigh this shortfall alongside low border encounters, rising but still limited interior enforcement, expanded voluntary departures, and ongoing legal and logistical constraints when pricing the 400-500k range as the leading outcome for calendar 2026. White House statements citing higher cumulative removals have not shifted the market, as participants focus on verifiable removal counts versus broader enforcement actions. Interior arrests have increased in recent months, yet overall volumes remain tempered by court backlogs and resource allocation. No major policy shifts have occurred in the past week to alter this positioning.
规则
在2024财年期间，ICE遣返了271,484名非公民（见：https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf）。 本市场将根据美国移民与海关执法局（ICE）在2026财年遣返的非公民人数进行结算。 结算依据将是ICE 2026财年年度报告。如果ICE 2026财年年度报告未能在2027年2月28日 23:59 ET之前发布，将使用另一个可信的结算来源。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。