- 12月31日前希腊和土耳其会发生军事冲突吗？5¢5%
Recent tensions center on competing maritime claims in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean, intensified by overlapping NAVTEX notices for the Eunomia 2026 multinational exercise and surveys for the Greece-Cyprus Great Sea Interconnector cable project. Turkey has issued counter-notices asserting jurisdiction over areas east of Crete and near Kasos/Karpathos, citing its continental shelf and Libya memorandum, while Greece proceeds without seeking Ankara’s consent and reports frequent Turkish aircraft and drone violations, including armed F-16 interceptions and simulated engagements near Kastellorizo in early October. Turkish state media have warned of potential naval encounters involving Greek and French vessels. Parallel diplomatic channels, including confidence-building talks and UN-side discussions on maritime delimitation, continue alongside U.S. statements emphasizing NATO constraints against direct conflict. These developments, concentrated in the past two weeks, shape trader assessments of near-term engagement risks.
规则
如果在 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 前，希腊与土耳其军方之间发生军事交战，此市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 “军事交战”指任何涉及使用武力的事件，例如导弹袭击、炮击、交火，或希腊与土耳其军方之间其他形式的直接军事交战。非暴力行为，例如警告射击，或导弹发射后落入领海或穿越领空，不符合判定为“是”的条件。蓄意用船撞击另一艘船并造成重大损坏（例如船体出现破洞），或一艘船击沉另一艘军舰，将计入判定为“是”；但轻微损坏（划痕、凹痕）不计。 被拦截的导弹或无人机袭击不符合判定条件，无论其是否落入敌方领土或造成损坏。同样，击中敌方领土的地对空导弹袭击不符合判定为“是”的条件（但向敌方军用飞机发射的地对空导弹符合条件）。 本市场的结算依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。