- Graham Platner 会在 2026年12月31日 前被起诉吗？3¢3%
Graham Platner faced public allegations of sexual assault from a former girlfriend dating to late 2021, which surfaced in early July 2026 and prompted his withdrawal from Maine’s Democratic Senate nomination. Authorities in Hancock County and the Maine State Police stated no formal complaint had been filed and no investigation was active, with officials noting victims often decline to pursue charges. The market assessed the likelihood of any federal or state indictment or charging announcement by the August 31, 2026 deadline at roughly 3 percent, reflecting the absence of procedural triggers, the brief remaining window, and the typical pace of such matters. Later campaign finance filings through October showed continued spending but no references to legal proceedings. Traders priced in the low probability based on the lack of new complaints or enforcement actions in the weeks after the allegations emerged.
规则
如果美国任何联邦或州级司法管辖区在市场创建后至 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 期间，正式起诉 Graham Platner 或以其他方式宣布对其提出刑事起诉，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 就本市场而言，哥伦比亚特区以及任何州的任何县、市或其他下级行政区均纳入“州”的定义。 本市场的主要判定依据为美国政府来源的官方信息；不过，也会参考可信报道的广泛共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。