- 法国会在2026年12月31日前宣布举行选举吗？9¢
France’s next legislative election remains scheduled for no later than June 2029, with any earlier vote requiring presidential dissolution of the National Assembly under Article 12. As of mid-October 2026, President Macron’s second term is nearing its end amid persistent parliamentary fragmentation, repeated no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, and stalled budget negotiations. Recent polls show deepening polarization ahead of the April-May 2027 presidential contest, with National Rally and La France Insoumise gaining ground while centrist options lag. Traders price modest near-term probability of a snap call because opposition parties lack unified leverage to force dissolution, fiscal pressures and student unrest have not yet triggered a government collapse, and both the president and leading contenders appear to favor waiting for the presidential cycle to reshape alliances. Key upcoming catalysts include further budget votes and any renewed coalition talks before year-end.
规则
如果下一次法国立法选举的日期在市场创建后至 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 之间公布，该市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 此市场判定为“是”只需公布选举日期，并不要求选举必须在市场期限内实际举行。 本市场结算的主要依据是法国政府的官方信息，但也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。