- 联邦资本利得税会在2026年前下调吗？7¢7%
Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted legislation cutting federal long-term capital gains rates, which remain at 0/15/20 percent brackets for 2026. The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made prior individual rate provisions permanent without altering capital gains taxation. Targeted proposals to double the primary residence exclusion, index gains for inflation, or create new exemptions have advanced only to the discussion or committee stage, facing reconciliation constraints, competing midterm priorities, and a compressed legislative calendar before year-end. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for no change by December 31, 2026, reflects these procedural and timing barriers. A narrow lame-duck package expanding the home-sale exclusion or introducing indexing could still shift the outcome if Congress prioritizes housing supply measures after the November elections.
规则
如果在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前，颁布法律，通过改变长期资本利得的征税或计算方式，降低个人因长期资本利得而应缴纳的联邦税，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 符合条件的变更不必适用于所有纳税人或所有长期资本利得。如果法律直接降低或免除个人通常应缴纳的长期资本利得联邦税，或降低或免除某一明确界定的纳税人或利得类别应缴纳的此类税款，就足以使本市场判定为“是”。这包括降低税率、给予免税或排除、调整适用门槛、改变成本基础或利得的计算方式，或采取其他法定机制。符合条件的变更可以在本市场期限之外生效。 临时减税或优惠也将计入。仅推迟缴税时间的变更，或在未专门改变长期资本利得的征税或计算方式的情况下，仅降低纳税人整体联邦税负的变更，均不予计入。 此市场判定的主要依据将是美国政府的官方信息，但也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。