- Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale 会赢得 Falealili 1 的补选吗？27¢
- Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen 会赢得 Falealili 1 的补选吗？4¢
- 帕特亚·塔韦乌韦乌·塔阿玛勒托阿·艾波维·帕特亚会赢得法莱阿利利1号补选吗？4¢
- Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai会赢得Falealili 1的补选吗？1¢
- Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu 会赢得 Falealili 1 的补选吗？11¢
- Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu 会赢得 Falealili 1 补选吗？39¢
- Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko 会赢得 Falealili 1 的补选吗？20¢
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
The Falealili 1 by-election in Samoa, scheduled for 18 September 2026, follows the Court of Appeal's June ruling upholding the voiding of former FAST MP and deputy prime minister Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo's seat over election bribery findings. A crowded field features FAST nominees including Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale and Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu alongside HRPP candidates Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu and Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko, plus several independents. Trader consensus shows leading probabilities clustered near 30-40 percent with no single contender dominating, reflecting limited consolidation after recent nominations closed and the absence of major withdrawals. Fragmented support across party and independent lines, combined with the short campaign window before pre-polling on 16 September, sustains the tight positioning; shifts could emerge from final turnout patterns or last-minute alignments among the roughly dozen registered options.