- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月7日至9月9日期间发布少于40条推文吗？26¢
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月7日至9月9日期间发布40到64条推文吗？47¢
- 埃隆·马斯克在2026年9月7日至9月9日期间会发65到89条推文吗？22¢
- 埃隆·马斯克在2026年9月7日至9月9日期间会发90-114条推文吗？5¢
- 埃隆·马斯克在2026年9月7日至9月9日期间会发布115-139条推文吗？1¢
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月7日至9月9日期间发布165-189条推文吗？<1¢
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月7日至9月9日期间发布240条以上推文吗？<1¢
- 埃隆·马斯克将在2026年9月7日至9月9日期间发布190-214条推文吗？<1¢
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月7日至9月9日期间发布140至164条推文吗？<1¢
- 2026年9月7日至9月9日期间，埃隆·马斯克会发215-239条推文吗？<1¢
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket highest at 46.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s September 7-9 output because recent three-day windows have clustered in the low-to-mid 40s to low 60s during periods without major catalysts. Recent settlements show Musk averaging roughly 20-30 posts daily amid steady Tesla and xAI commentary, producing totals that favor this range over quieter or more active bins. The <40 outcome at 26% reflects weekend slowdown potential, while the 22% on 65-89 accounts for possible news-driven spikes. With no imminent product launches, policy developments, or platform controversies flagged ahead of the period, the market consensus aligns with Musk’s established baseline cadence rather than outlier volume.