- 哪场参议院选战会更激烈：Nebraska还是Texas？>99¢>99%
Texas Senate contest draws greater trader attention as the tighter race. In Nebraska, incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts holds a narrow edge over independent Dan Osborn in limited polling, with averages showing roughly a 1–2 point Republican lead and forecasts rating the race a toss-up or lean Republican. Texas features an open seat where Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico; recent surveys show margins under 3 points either way, with polling averages often near even or slight Democratic leads amid dozens of releases. Heavy outside spending exceeding $290 million, Paxton’s primary victory over an incumbent, ongoing controversies, and elevated national focus contribute to higher perceived volatility in Texas compared with Nebraska’s more contained polling sample and structural Republican lean. Both remain among the closest 2026 Senate races, but Texas polling volume and campaign intensity support the 63% market consensus favoring it as narrower.
规则
2026年中期选举计划于2026年11月3日举行。 如果 Nebraska 按照既定安排举行的美国参议院选举中，未经四舍五入的胜选差距小于 Texas 的参议院选举胜选差距，则此市场的结果为“Nebraska”。 如果 Texas 按照既定安排举行的美国参议院选举中，未经四舍五入的胜选差距小于 Nebraska 的参议院选举胜选差距，则此市场的结果为“Texas”。 如果两个州的胜选差距相同，此市场将以 50-50 判定。 就本市场而言，“胜选差距”定义为得票数排名第一和第二的候选人所获有效票百分比之间的绝对差值。每位候选人所获有效票的百分比，将通过用得票数排名前两位的候选人各自获得的有效票总数，除以该次选举所有有效票总数来确定。 对于包含决选、排序选择投票或其他多轮投票的选举，相关胜选差距以决定胜者的那一轮为准。 如果截至 2027年3月31日 仍无法确定相关的胜选差距，则就本市场而言，该州的胜选差距将视为 0%。 本市场的结算来源将汇总所有负责认证全州选举的相关州选举机构资料；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。