- 哪场参议院选战会更激烈：Alaska还是Texas？81¢81%
Texas holds a 61.5% implied probability of producing the narrower Senate margin. Both races rank among the tightest 2026 contests, with recent polling averages showing single-digit or sub-4-point spreads in each. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola has held narrow leads or near-ties over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan across October surveys (e.g., 48-47, 50-48, 51-49), though ranked-choice voting transfers could widen the final certified margin. In Texas, the open-seat matchup between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has produced similarly tight results (Talarico +1 to +4 in multiple October polls), driven by heavy outside spending, shifting Latino and suburban voting patterns, and the state’s large electorate that can compress percentage margins. Traders appear to view Texas’s combination of polling volatility, demographic fluidity, and absence of RCV mechanics as more likely to deliver the smallest victory margin on Election Day.
规则
2026年中期选举计划于2026年11月3日举行。 如果 Alaska 按照既定安排举行的美国参议院选举中，未经四舍五入的胜选差距小于 Texas 的参议院选举胜选差距，则此市场的结果为“Alaska”。 如果 Texas 按照既定安排举行的美国参议院选举中，未经四舍五入的胜选差距小于 Alaska 的参议院选举胜选差距，则此市场的结果为“Texas”。 如果两个州的胜选差距相同，此市场将以 50-50 判定。 就本市场而言，“胜选差距”定义为得票数排名第一和第二的候选人所获有效票百分比之间的绝对差值。每位候选人所获有效票的百分比，将通过用得票数排名前两位的候选人各自获得的有效票总数，除以该次选举所有有效票总数来确定。 对于包含决选、排序选择投票或其他多轮投票的选举，相关胜选差距以决定胜者的那一轮为准。 如果截至 2027年3月31日 仍无法确定相关的胜选差距，则就本市场而言，该州的胜选差距将视为 0%。 本市场的结算来源将汇总所有负责认证全州选举的相关州选举机构资料；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。