- 2028年之前中国会发生政变未遂吗？12¢12%
- 2027年前中国会发生政变未遂吗？2¢2%
Recent large-scale purges within the People’s Liberation Army, including the removal of multiple Central Military Commission members such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on corruption and disloyalty grounds, have left numerous seats vacant at the Fifth Plenum. These actions, announced in September and October 2026, reflect intensified internal discipline efforts ahead of the 2027 party congress. No coordinated military or factional effort to seize power has been confirmed by credible reporting in the past month. Trader consensus on low odds for a coup attempt before year-end aligns with the absence of verified execution of such plans, though scheduled leadership meetings and any sudden public absences could still introduce volatility.
规则
如果在市场创建至2027年12月31日 23:59 ET期间的任何时候，中国发生未遂政变的消息得到广泛报道，该市场将结算为“是”。否则，此市场将以“否”结算。 政变企图是指军方、安全部队或其他国家行为者（或其派系）协调并蓄意推翻中国政府或其领导层，或以非法手段夺取对其的控制权。非国家力量的革命行动、零星抗议或普遍动荡，单独而言均不符合条件。 中国政府声称政变企图已被挫败（例如通过逮捕或中断一项已计划的行动），只有在可信的独立消息来源广泛报道该事件，并明确将其描述为政变企图时，才会计入判定为“是”的结果。如果没有人尝试执行政变，则被挫败的阴谋或相关逮捕均不符合条件。 判定依据将是可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。