- 加拿大会在 12月31日 前驱逐美国大使吗？8¢8%
Canada-US diplomatic frictions have intensified around trade tariffs, ambassadorial statements, and election-related accusations, yet these have not produced the conditions for formal expulsion by year-end. US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra remains in post amid ongoing disputes, including his October 2026 podcast remarks warning Canadian officials against perceived interference in US midterms and criticizing provincial ads and ministerial comments on tariffs. A parliamentary petition exceeding 200,000 signatures earlier in the year urged declaring him persona non grata over comments on Canadian politics and “51st state” rhetoric, but it is non-binding and the Carney government has shown no inclination to invoke the Vienna Convention mechanism. Bilateral trade negotiations continue despite suspensions, with both sides prioritizing managed tensions over rupture ahead of US midterms. Traders price expulsion as improbable because such a step would represent an unprecedented escalation against a close ally, absent a triggering crisis or official policy shift.
规则
如果加拿大在市场创建后至 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 之间驱逐美国驻加拿大大使，则该市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 就本市场而言，“驱逐”是指加拿大采取正式行动，要求美国驻加拿大大使离开加拿大，包括宣布其为不受欢迎人物（persona non grata）。撤销大使的签证或拒绝其入境加拿大，单独而言均不足以构成驱逐。 只要宣布符合条件的驱逐，即足以将市场判定为“是”，无论大使是否实际离开该国。 本市场的主要判定来源为加拿大政府的官方信息；但也可采用可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。