- 民主党会赢得众议院中属于 CA-11 的席位吗？>99¢>99%
- 共和党会赢得 CA-11 的众议院席位吗？<1¢<1%
California’s 11th congressional district, encompassing most of San Francisco, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+36 and has delivered overwhelming Democratic margins in recent statewide and federal contests. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates—state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—to the November general election, with Republican contenders receiving under 6 percent combined. This structure and the district’s voter registration patterns have produced the current market pricing. A Democratic outcome could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as a candidate’s withdrawal, party switch, or disqualification after the filing deadline, none of which have materialized.
规则
本市场将根据在 2026 年中期选举中赢得美国众议院 CA-11 国会选区席位的候选人所属政党进行结算。中期选举将于 2026年11月3日 举行。 候选人的政党归属，将以该候选人在本市场的结算信息来源明确判定 2026 年所有众议院选举结果时，在选票上列明或以其他方式可确认的政党隶属关系为准。如果候选人的选票上未注明其属于民主党或共和党，则将在本市场的判定来源最终确认所有众议院选举结果之时，根据候选人最近一次表示有意与之组成党团的政党，将其视为该两党之一的成员。 本市场将根据可信报道所形成的共识所表明的选举结果进行结算。如存在歧义，本市场将仅依据美国政府公布的官方结果进行判定，具体以Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)公布的结果为准。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。