- 弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗会以不足5%的优势赢得2026年巴西总统大选首轮投票吗？100¢
- 路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦会在2026年巴西总统选举的第一轮中以5-10%的优势获胜吗？0¢
- 路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦是否将在2026年巴西总统选举的第一轮中以不到5%的优势获胜？0¢
- 雷南·桑托斯会赢得2026年巴西总统选举的首轮投票吗？0¢
- 弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗将在2026年巴西总统选举首轮中以5-10%的优势获胜吗？0¢
- 路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦会在2026年巴西总统选举第一轮中以10-15%的优势获胜吗？0¢
- 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗能否在2026年巴西总统选举首轮中以至少10%的优势获胜？0¢
- 卢拉·达席尔瓦会以至少15%的优势赢得2026年巴西总统选举首轮投票吗？0¢
- 会有其他人赢得2026年巴西总统选举的第一轮吗？0¢
- 塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯会在2026年巴西总统选举第一轮获胜吗？0¢
- 卡洛斯·罗伯托·马萨·儒尼奥尔会在2026年巴西总统选举第一轮获胜吗？0¢
Flávio Bolsonaro secured a narrow first-round lead over incumbent President Lula on October 4, finishing at roughly 47% of valid votes to Lula’s 45% and advancing both candidates to an October 25 runoff. Pre-election polling aggregates had shown a statistical tie or small Lula edge in the opening round, with neither candidate approaching the 50% threshold needed to win outright. Traders priced the margin below 5% at essentially 100% because the final certified gap settled near two points amid high polarization, consolidated conservative support behind the Liberal Party candidate, and limited third-party vote splitting. A recount, late shifts in blank or null ballots, or court rulings on valid-vote calculations remain the only realistic paths to altering that narrow band.
规则
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).