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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling consistently places the Liberal Party senator well ahead of other challengers behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-wing support behind his son, who polls in the low-to-mid 30s percent in first-round scenarios while Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema and remaining candidates remain in the low single digits. Datafolha, Quaest and Nexus surveys from August show Lula at 38-41 percent and Flávio at 31-37 percent, preserving a wide gap that has narrowed only modestly in recent weeks without altering the ordering. This polling pattern underpins the market’s assessment of the likely first-round finishers.